Happy New Year 2015

Posted on January 4, 2015 by Mick's Muses

Happy New Year

Happy-2015_thumb.jpg

 

A new year has arrived, a new year when we all have our individual hopes, aspirations and expectations for the future. A year when visionaries may have their dreams fulfilled or perhaps just furthered a little more.

This time last year I summarised quite accurately the forthcoming main issues likely to dominate the headlines This year the future is a little more difficult to foresee as .so much will depend on the outcome of the forthcoming General Election. So much is dependent on the election result as to determine which direction the UK is likely to go in the world. So many topics from the NHS to Immigration are embroiled in the consequences election result itself.

  • General Election

  • Immigration

  • European Recession

General Election

I normally find in the year leading up to a General Election, it is possibly to sense the feeling of the public mood which gives s good indication of which way the election is likely to go. This is the first time I have not been able to sense any such a feeling. It is almost like there is some form on no-man’s land on the subject. There are certainly exceptionally strong feelings over issues like Europe and Immigration, but I think there is also a general sense of great public unease with all the main parties and how they will deal with these issues, if at all,  except in their election rhetoric.

It is almost certain that increasingly over the next few months we will be faced with a barrage of fatuous and equally hollow promises from political parties mixed in with acrimonious debate. They have already started with promises like a future road improvement programme. One such promise that is likely to effect myself in the West Country where I live is the main arterial road, the A303 from London being duelled along its length. Again locals have heard this same promise so many times before only for it to be cancelled yet again for economic reasons as soon as a new government takes control. Most locals take such promises with a ‘pinch of salt’ and will only believe it when it happens. The likelihood  of the next government using the time weathered excuse of ‘the current economic situation’ for pruning back this programme once again, possibly to the point where it becomes non-existent remains very high.

The only thing that seems reasonably certain in the next election from what I can sense from public opinion, is the Lib/Dems will fare badly, so badly that are likely to gain few, if any seats at all in Parliament.

Even with the Lib/Dems facing political annihilation in the election, it is still unlikely to be a straight contest between the Conservatives and Labour. There are now two new kids on the block that have surged into prominence since the last election in the form of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)  and the Scottish Nationalists.These upcoming parties are likely to heavily drain seats from the Tories and Labour particularly in areas where they had previously enjoyed strong support. So much so, there is a strong possibility no one party will have sufficient seats to form a government. If this happens then the future governance of this country is likely to be another difficult to manage coalition government with policies based on what can be salvaged from the wreckage of grandiose promises and what the economic situation will allow.

With these four parties having  almost diametrically opposed views on a number of policies, the likelihood of a sustained period of horse trading  to form a government between the parties remains high and it is likely the electorate will be left feeling cheated once again on issues like a European Referendum. I would not be at all surprised, unthinkable as it may be, if we end up with either Lab/Scot Nats, Lab/Con or even a Con/UKIP coalition with the support of a few individuals from other parties. It is as if the more traditional mould of British politics is about to be broken for a long time to come. Personally I detest coalition governments no matter what parties they are formed from. They certainly do not lead to strong government and are at best a watered down appeasement of each parties policies.

Immigration

Once again this is an issue likely to figure at the forefront of the election. One thing people most resent is not foreign visitors per se, but a overwhelming flood of people coming from abroad to reside in the UK and in so doing, changing the UK’s own culture in the process. Questions like how things like Education, Health Services, Housing and so on are expected to cope with suddenly increased numbers are valid questions that do not appear to be satisfactorily answered. A sudden increase of people for whatever reason means a strain on the housing market be it social or private. This in turn has led to higher property prices through supply and demand shortages, which in turn has squeezed many people through economic pressures out of the property market all together. Any party that takes away the prospect of people one day ever owning their own home has made a lifelong enemy.The rented sector which began to seriously decline in the 1960/70’s is once again booming but this time with exceeding high and eye-watering rent levels.Although the politicians have claimed immigration is economically good for Great Britain, that is not how it is perceived by much of the UK electorate.

Free migration by EU citizens within member states is a cornerstone policy of the EU. EU politicians claim that any attempt to reform this policy would require a treaty change and would need to be agreed to by all 28 member states. They also indicate that any such move is likely to be fiercely resisted. Despite paying a lions share in contributions to the EU, as many of the UK’s powers have been devolved to the EU by previous governments, political promises to reform immigration do seem to be dead in the water. A point that will not please many of the electorate and could well be a deciding issue in the General Election.

European Recession

Recent months have seen a collapse in oil prices. This is mainly due the the US now being able to exploit its own shale oil resources and reducing its dependency on the world oil market. Recession in other large oil consuming countries in the Far East and South America have added to a world surplus of oil. Petro economies reliant from both the sale of oil and oil taxes have seen their revenues fall. This includes the UK but other forms of income from services like banking are helping to off-set this loss. Had Scotland vote for Independence, their economy would have faced great difficulties.

Other European economies have faced a much slower recovery than the UK and some economists have forecast this could lead to a triple-dip recession in the Euro Zone. It is not possible to turn a blind-eye to this possibility or the effects yet another possible threat from possibly a new Greek government seeking to renegotiate the terms of its bail-out commitments.

Even though the UK is likely to suffer less from a possible recession, the fall in demand for exported goods with a likely rising value of the pound against the Euro would mean a reduced income for a UK government making the likelihood imposing even more harsher spending cuts at home.

The EU heavily criticised in the UK for apparent liberal and ever increasing spending policies irrespective of its member states financial realities, is likely to put greater financial demands on its more wealthier member states if it finds itself in financial difficulties. Again this is something unlikely to please the UK electorate.

All of the above factors are making the fortune teller’s crystal ball a bit murky for the next six months.After that things should become a little clearer although I am not so certain UK citizens will necessarily like what they see. On a optimistic note however, the UK’s future will probably be better than many others.

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Is a European Referendum really a Myth?

Posted on March 13, 2014 by Mick's Muses

Broken European FlagWith the May European Elections fast approaching, all the main traditional political parties have finally been forced to nail their colours to the mast and declare where they stand on the question of the UK’s future in Europe. Most would have preferred to remain silent on the issue but an up-swell in public feeling and a new kid on the block in the form of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) have made continued indifference and silence impossible.

The choices on offer can be analysed as falling into three groups.

An outright NO referendum;

A maybe but only if referendum

A straight forward Yes/No or In/Out Referendum.

The Labour Leader has now clearly associated himself with the No referendum choice irrelevant what his own party members may think. He did attempt moderate this stark non-choice, some might say mask by adding there would only be a referendum if there was a transfer of more powers from London to Brussels but believed this was unlikely.

The “maybe” choice is either based on the outcome of a renegotiated terms of EU membership which is unlikely to happen in any depth if at all, by the Conservative Party or a “significant” transfer of power from London to Brussels stance by the Lib/Dem Party.

An immediate In/Out referendum following the next general election with the decision to remain in the EU being decided by the People rather than politicians.

The No referendum stance is quite clear. It is the same as assuming the majority of the people had voted Yes to stay in the EU had there been one. As there has never been a public decision on whether the UK should be part of anything other that an economic trading group in Europe in 1975, it cannot be seen as anything else other than enforced European Union by political diktat alone. This is essentially what happened in 1992 when significant UK powers were devolved to Europe under the Maastricht Treaty. Politicians fearful of a public backlash from a referendum which a treaty made more likely bent over backwards in an attempt to find ways at preventing a damaging referendum and finally found a loop-hole in calling the treaty more of an accord than anything else. A No referendum is the same as politicians alone deciding that the public cannot be trusted to vote the right way.

The maybe choice is really something of a political lawyers paradise in deciding what is a significant transfer of powers or whether a few possible concessions are enough to determine a referendum should or should not be held. Under these conditions the likelihood of a referendum when coloured by political smoke and mirrors arguments is dubious.

The In/Out referendum offered by UKIP is the only clear-cut choice being offered to the public by politicians for the first time.

All of the choices have even then to be tempered by which political party or coalition forms the next Government and at the moment there is no real discernable groundswell one way or the other in favour of one particular party or another.

Considering the EU has now grown to the size of an empire, not created by civil unrest or military conquest or even public decision but by political manipulation, one cannot help but wonder what the future holds. We have already seen direct involvement by the EU on sovereign countries in terms of laws and even budgets to a degree. Although not mentioned on anyone’s agenda at the moment, I can eventually fear the creation of an EU army, a EU Health Service and education system and so on. On a day to day basis real power is wielded by a system of unelected commissioners and a unelected president.

Monolithic empires created from so many countries with a multitude of diversity amongst their peoples with their own internal customs and beliefs inevitably become susceptible to growing internal discontent as one rule fits all policies are imposed on them. The spectacularly rapid breakup of the U.S.S.R. is the most recent historical evidence of that. It is not difficult to foresee  that happening to a future EU.

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Happy New Year 2014

Posted on December 31, 2013 by Mick's Muses

2014

Happy New Year Folks!

Well the New Year has arrived perhaps for some, bright expectations for the future and the start of a new life while for others, the new year may just be a mundane continuation of the previous 12 months. Certainly life is what the individual makes of it but even the most optimistic outlooks can be severely tempered by economic crisis.

It’s likely the main items to dominate the headlines in the forthcoming year will be;

• Immigration

• Scotland’s Independence Referendum

• European Election

• Anniversary of the start of World War One

• Pay and Pensions

Immigration

This time last year I wrote that immigration was likely to develop into something of a furore mainly due to the ending of temporary right to free movement controls imposed on a number of newer EU member states. How right that forecast proved to be. The original slow awareness of a potential problem rapidly gathered pace like ever-growing snowball rolling downhill until it resulted in the Government taking 11th hour measures in desperation to avoid any potential surge in benefit and health tourism. The qualifying time for claiming benefits has now been raised to three months UK residence and a requirement for non-UK residents to pay for health treatment.

Whether or not these measures have any effect or whether the UK will see a huge immigration influx only the forthcoming months will tell. Clearly some will always use these fears to play the racism card, something I personally will have no truck with. There are however those who have in the past sought to unjustly label anyone who raised serious questions about the effects of mass immigration as having racist tendencies. No government or local authority can ignore the effects  a sudden influx of people would have on housing supply, education, health services and social infrastructure. People coming from countries with traditionally low rates of pay cannot be blamed for wanting to enhance their families status. It does seem however that some employers have also used this new pool of lower wage expectation manpower to keep earnings artificially depressed. I cannot help but think that is something of a short-sighted view and something of economic madness. In the longer term, companies can only prosper if people buy their goods or services something which a low wage base population struggling to make ends meet are unlikely to do. Even the head of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has recognised this by stating that some employers are keeping far too many people stuck in minimum-wage jobs.

Scotland’s Independence Referendum

On the 18th September the people of Scotland will hold a referendum to vote on whether Scotland should become an independent country, breaking it’s ties with the United Kingdom. I have a feeling in the months running up to the referendum this is likely to turn into a most acrimonious debate with claim and counter-claim as to the benefits or lack of them that Scotland will face if it does become independent.At the moment I like many others am unclear as to who will be entitled to vote. While I accept the principle it is for the Scottish people to decide their future the question still remains at the moment who these people will be. Will it be all residents in Scotland or just those of Scottish descent. If it is the latter it begs the question of degrees of Scottishness as many people claim to have an element of Scottish blood running through their veins. Would one have to be both born in Scotland and be of Scottish decent to vote or would people of Scottish descent around the world be equally entitled? There are many people whose Scottish ancestors moved to England where they were born but who have subsequently moved back to Scotland. How does one prove they are Scottish? It’s not as daft a question as it may at first appear. The age for eligibility to vote has been lowered to 16, something that many adults in any election worldwide might question the wisdom of.

I personally am not in favour of Scottish independence not because I am English and might be considered biased but because I believe breaking the union apart will not serve any good purpose for either side. There are those who will say Scotland’s economy is booming and will continue to flourish. I take a more dispassionate look can only effectively see tourism and dwindling returns from North Sea oil. If future economic circumstances should dictate that oil companies suspend oil production, then Scotland would be plunged into an immediate economic crisis. It’s no use people saying such things can not happen as in a global economy with multi-national companies anything is possible.

Scotland like England certainly has the remnants of a once thriving shipbuilding industry. However like England the Scottish shipbuilding industry is in serious decline faced with almost unmatchable competition from foreign shipyards that can build ships in a faster turnaround time with the consequent cost savings.Again some would debatably argue that the faster built ships are not of the same quality as Scottish built ships. It is an argument that cuts no ice with the shipping companies as they look not only at potential cargoes but financial ledgers as well. The period during which a ship is built is also a dead-money time for shipping companies. It’s only when a ship is on the sea carrying cargo that it earns money and certainly not during the extended period while a ship of perhaps better quality is built. Unless a new Scottish Government were prepared or had the finances to pour money into shipyard modernisation along with the changes in working conditions then I can see no future shipbuilding industry, (and any consequent economic benefit it would bring), at all.

There are those in the current Scottish Assembly that say if they win independence they would remain part of the EU and they would not institute border controls. I do find that all rather fanciful and wishful thinking. The Spanish Prime Minister for one disagrees with that point of view and I dare say there are others that think the same. It is also unlikely that the English Parliament could tolerate a position where Scotland become an open gateway for migrants who who simply pass-through Scotland on their way to England. Although no one in Government has yet had the nerve to say so, it’s patently obvious that England would have to institute border controls at the Scottish border from day one. This immediately raises the prospect of Scottish people in England or vice-versa becoming aliens in a foreign country overnight, a real prospect anyone should shudder at.

I tend to think the Scottish people are far more wiser and canny to see through anyone essentially raising very little other than a patriotic flag waving argument.

European Elections

Elections for the European Parliament are due to take place in April and they are likely to throw all the mainstream political parties into something of a turmoil. There is a very strong anti-European feeling running through the UK at the moment and only the proposed European Referendum in 2015, if it ever happens, will be able to determine whether pro or anti-Europeans are in the majority. Although a European referendum is now contained within an Act of Parliament that does not mean it is written in tablets of stone and will take place. A lot will depend on the outcome of a General Election and which party or the strengths of any future coalition government eventually takes control. The Liberal Party would scrap any such referendum immediately in the very unlikely event they won the election. Labour are somewhat silent on the issue and one can guess why. Saying they will also scrap the referendum is a guaranteed vote loser.

That only leaves the forthcoming European Election where the electorate can have their say. What is different in this election is the hitherto comparatively unknown United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) have suddenly started making major inroads in local elections leaving the main political parties fearful they may do the same in the European Elections. The would leave the Government with it’s European input seriously weakened at the Council of Ministers with possibly diametrically opposed views to it’s representatives in the European Parliament..If this were to happen then the path run up to the General Election is likely to be littered with all sorts of disingenuous future promises.

The only vote the British people have had on Europe was a referendum in 1975 to join the then EEC (European Economic Community), a trading community and nothing else. No mention was ever made of political union or the loss of sovereignty and all that entails.Everything that has developed since then has been without the consensus of the British people by smoke and mirrors arguments from those fearful of loosing a vote on the subject. Future historians will probably look back on this period and ridicule the politicians involved.

Anniversary of the start of World War One

The 28th July will see the hundredth anniversary of the start of World War One. It was on this date in 1914 that Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife Sophie were assassinated in Sarajevo during a visit to what was then the capital of the Austro-Hungarian province of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Archduke was the heir to the throne of Austria and Hungary.

The assassination led to a chain of events where Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia and other nations subsequently mobilised to either support or defend one another. The rest as they say is history. Four years of bloody battle and a estimated 14 million deaths ensued. Ways of life and social structures also fell victim to the carnage and the world was never the same again in the aftermath.

One hundred years may seem like a long time to many, very few of us were alive then but the impact ran deep like a scythe cutting through society and for some, the wounds are still felt today.

For the average soldier, irrelevant of what nation they fought for, they simply did as they were ordered, orders that originated from their generals which in turn led back to a handful of politicians. For many it originally was a form of escapism from their humdrum lives with a chance of foreign travel they were unlikely to achieve otherwise. Everyone though the whole thing would be a short bloody skirmish after which everyone would go home again. Tragically these thoughts were quickly dispelled as reality set in and many were destined never to return home again. Entire towns and villages lost their menfolk as well as ladies losing their sweethearts, wives loosing their husbands and children loosing their fathers.

It is important to remember the ultimate sacrifice so many made and also to learn the lessons from it. Failure to learn those lessons of World War One sowed the seeds of the even greater greater holocaust of World War Two.

Pay and Pensions

Pay I have already covered under immigration as both tend to be inter-linked. Problems with pensions however have been quietly lurking beneath the surface for some time and I think are likely to erupt at some time during the year.

To many pensions have always been and probably will remain something of a taboo subject. Something that is not readily understood and brushed aside with a “Best left to others” to sort out attitude. Younger generations however are becoming more aware and astute that their forefathers as to how pensions work and will no longer accept their parents something to be brushed under the carpet outlook. People are now living longer and young people of today must now worked until they are 70 to get a state pension. It is likely the goal posts of age will be moved even further before they achieve that. At the same time traditional company pension schemes are closing with the forecast they will completely disappear within the next decade.

The money so diligently saved over the years for a pension goes into what in known as an individuals pension pot. When they eventually retire this sum of money is used to buy an annuity which is a fixed contract guaranteeing the individual a set income for the rest of their life. This may seem all well and good but it has emerged the companies that deal in annuities charge differing administration fees and also offer differing rates for the lifetime return they give in return for the money in an individuals pension pot. This could mean that twin brothers working in the same occupation and retiring on the same day could receive a pension differing by several thousand pounds a year if their pension pots are invested with different annuity companies. Administration fees are akin to someone putting their hands in your pocket to take some of your money to look after it. This is fine to a degree but it a company takes more money out of your pocket than another company for doing the same thing, then less money is going into your pension pot. Some companies also charge high transfer fees when you retire should you decide that company A offers a better annuity rate than company B.

This may all be perfectly legal but I think it can only be a matter of time before governments are forced by increasingly aware pension savers to pass legislation ending this disparity.

The other pension and to which many are solely reliant is the State Pension Scheme. Again it will not be too long before people increasing start asking if I now have to work until I am 70 plus years old, what happens to my contributions if I die before then? It does seem they lose them and the state pension will in part be financed by those who never live long enough to collect them.

A recent survey of pensions internationally claimed that UK pensioners received the worst pensions in Europe and the possibility does exist of the UK becoming a nation of pauper pensioners, something that will do both them and the UK economy no good.. One thing is clear, as more people become pension literate, fewer of them will be prepared to accept the poor state of affairs with either private or state pensions and with pensioners surviving longer, all political parties are starting to fear the power of the grey vote.

I have but touched on five subjects likely to arouse controversy in the forthcoming year. There are likely to be many others but I think these will have higher prominence.

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