Snap General Election 2017

Teresa MayWell it would appear that the Prime Minister has well and truly set the cat amongst the pigeons with her decision to call a snap General Election over Brexit. It is a move that has sent something of a shockwave through all political parties.

I cannot help but think that this election which will be held on June 8th will not only decisively settle the issue of Brexit in Parliament but will also ultimately turn out to be something of a game-changer for the face of British politics for years to come.

With all political parties caught off guard, their leaders had little choice but to express their individual optimism of how well they all think this election will turn out for their own parties but I do suspect without the usual hype that normally proceeds known General Elections, there is something of a background panic at suddenly having to muster their unprepared troops for this unexpected contest for the future of the nation.

I can only make possible predictions based on my own personal reading and feelings of the state of play in British politics, and public opinion, but I have little doubt that after the votes are cast and counted Teresa May will be returned as Prime Minister with a vastly increased majority. If that eventually proves to be true, then it begs the question of which political parties will lose-out?

I have little doubt the majority of the loss will be felt by the Labour Party which seems to be in a constant state of disarray and turmoil between its grass-root members and current Members of Parliament. There was a good chance that some of these MP’s would have been deselected by their own parties in the normal course of events, but the calling of a snap election now means there is no time to go through the normal selection process and existing Labour MP’s will stand again as candidates. It is however well possible that in some constituencies, many local members may feel disinclined to campaign for them. Although the undisputed leader of the Labour Party, I have always felt that Jeremy Corbyn has lacked the dynamic charisma necessary to lead a party. Although well meaning in his views, most of them tend to boil down to a mixture of either tax the rich or introduce even more taxes to pay for his aspirations. For a already heavily taxed country, it is a message unlikely to be well received. If Labour do lose heavily then either Jeremy Corbyn will resign and opportunist MP’s, not to the liking of many  Labour members, who have been waiting in the wings will once again attempt to seize control  of the Labour Party. Either that or if Jeremy Corby stays,some of them might attempt to form their own political party.

Whatever way it plays out, there are just so many of Labour’s traditional electorate who feel Labour have long ago lost their way in recognising who it is supposed to represent, and why, that Labour is becoming almost meaningless in their traditional supporters eyes. One thing is for certain, a political party which is at war with itself does not win votes.

The Liberal Democratic Party will obviously pin its hopes on making something of a recovery, but I cannot help but feel that even if they do win a few more seats from their already decimated position, they are still destined for years in the wilderness. The public has long memories and former university students who are now married with families and mortgages, and with hefty debts accrued while at university as a direct result of their then leader reneging on his pledge not to introduce university fees. With that and their failure to accept the democratic majority vote in the Brexit referendum, they curry little favour in many of the publics eye.

For the Scottish National Party (SNP) who command a sizable position within Parliament, I think this election could well prove the beginning of their decline.I accept they are still likely to be the biggest winning party in Scotland after the election, but I also think it possible they may lose a number of seats. If the SNP do lose a few seats, it is likely to be as a result of their incessant demand for yet another Independence Referendum even though there was one such ‘once in a lifetime’ referendum only a few years ago. It does seem the majority of Scottish voters are not in favour of having another referendum forced on them and this is likely to cause some resent apart from that often felt towards most governing parties. Losing a few seats might not seem the end of the world but it would show the SNP’s position in Scotland is not impregnable and would be the start of the slippery slope to eventual defeat..

As for the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), now that the vote for Brexit has been achieved, I am not sure they have too much of a future. Support for UKIP swelled enormously when there was a lot of pressure for a Brexit Referendum on which UKIP’s stance was clear. Now that has passed and with a Tory Party now implementing the same thing, apart from ensuring Brexit stays on course, many voters including myself do not understand what other policies they stand for. I am certain they do have policies but for some reason their message never seems to come across. UKIP did manage to succeed in getting one Member of Parliament elected but he has since defected. I think they are still likely to do reasonably well in this election particularly from disaffected Labour Voters but due to the current Parliamentary system, this is likely to result in few, if any seats in Parliament.

I would not be at all surprised if future historians will look back at this General Elections as being a defining moment and something of a sea-change for British politics.

The European Brexit Referendum – In or Out?

BrexitNow the Prime Minister David Cameron has returned from his lengthy European country hopping tour, clutching what has become know as “The Deal” of reforms the EU has not so graciously awarded the UK, he immediately announced a date of Thursday 23rd June as polling day for the long awaited referendum, (or Brexit ), on whether the UK should remain part of the European Union (EU). I for one cannot help but be reminded of the similarity when another British Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain also returned from Europe brandishing a piece of paper with appeasement written all over it.

Campaigning by both the Leave-EU and Stay—in factions has now begun, but so far I find both of them quite lack-lustre in putting any form of message across. I find that disappointing considering both campaigns have seasoned politicians from all sides of the political spectrum as their front-runners. The Stay-in campaign appear to have adopted a ceaseless barrage of fear in a attempt to persuade, or even scare voters to remain in the EU. Fears like national security, job opportunities and so on, all of which I find feeble and groundless. The Leave-EU campaign however I  find  are also failing to put forward what should be the positive benefits for leaving the EU. In short, so far the UK electorate have faced a totally negative fear campaign on one side, and a far less than positive one on the other side.

Although it is still early days for both campaigns, opinion polls tend to indicate the views those in favour of leaving or staying are reasonably evenly  divided, with about a third of the electorate as yet undecided. Apparently there is even a marked trend in age difference between the two sets of opinions with younger voters more likely to vote to stay in the EU and with more older voters wanting to leave. In a way I suppose that is understandable as no one below the age of 40 will have had any experience what being a totally independent country and what the opportunities that brings really means.

With the exception of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), the leaders of other political parties have declared their parties are for remaining in Europe. However one cannot help but wonder just how many grass roots members in their own parties they are speaking for?  Reports indicate the Conservative Party appear to have deep internal divisions on the issue, and I would not be in the least surprised if other political parties are facing the same problem. Either way a referendum does not depend on what individual political parties, local or national politicians say. A referendum is where a country as a whole votes for a national policy, not a local political party or politician. It is where the individual electors collective opinion counts only.

As for myself, I am definitely for Leaving the EU. I voted not to join the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1975. Although in many ways at the time this was little more than a glorified European street market, I could foresee the ramifications of what those who were then pushing for, and still are, for ever greater political union, would really mean. What we have now is something bordering on just short of a European super-state. The danger with something this big is ultimately it tries to make “one cap fits all” policies, and  for an area as big and diverse in people, customs, practices and beliefs that Europe is. Such policies can only lead to resentment which does no one any good.

To me the EU’s recent concessions to the UK are merely unimportant bread crumbs. What was given on one hand can be taken back again by one method or another if we remain members of the EU. What I found more important as well as infuriating, humiliating and disgraceful was  a week in which my own Prime Minister had to effectively plead with the leaders of 27 other countries as they debated and decided what they would allow my country to do or not do. That in a nutshell sums up what the EU is about. It does seem as if individual national governments and the voters that elected them are now in effect starting to become subservient to the collective decisions of other countries. It no longer matters what part of the political spectrum anyone’s views are,  as national governments are in effect gradually becoming almost like puppet governments in terms of EU policies they would have to comply with even if ones own government and public opinion are totally opposed to it.

I am also mindful of ideas like a European army that have already been floated around by European politicians. Although these ideas received little support for now, I have no doubt they will be raised again in the future and all that entails. I understand the EU is even seeking to bring the UK Coast Guard under its control and likely unpopular proposals like the power ratings of electric kettles seem to have been temporarily shelved while the Brexit campaign is underway. I look at our once proud and robust fishing industry now totally decimated and cannot help but think this is what the policies of the EU gave to us, or should that more accurately be, took away from us.

It is true to say that UK politicians do make mistakes, but then so do other European politicians. The difference is the electorate has the power to dismiss a UK government through a general election, but has no power to dismiss European politicians.

Winston Churchill was a great wartime leader whom without his anti-appeasement stance and defiance, it is unlikely the UK could have withstood, let alone be a essential part in winning World War 2. Although I am unlikely to have ever agreed with his peacetime policies, I do recognise Churchill had great foresight. One of his quotes on Europe was

Of Europe Churchill once said;

 ‘If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea, she must always choose the open sea.”

Being anti-EU however does not make me anti-European, quite the opposite. Europe is rich and diverse in its many cultures and long may it be so. I have always found individuals warm and welcoming and  I would not what to see such diversity gradually eroded away by the desire of some for increasing European conformity.

Despite the negative fear campaign being waged by the Stay-in the EU group, I am not in the least bit afraid to leave. What really scares me is the thought of what Europe will become if we remain in it, and what the UK will also gradually be forced to become too. For this reason alone I trust the electorate do not make the same mistake they made in 1975 and become beguiled by the romance of Europe as opposed to the hard realities.

%d bloggers like this: