Happy New Year 2015

Happy New Year

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A new year has arrived, a new year when we all have our individual hopes, aspirations and expectations for the future. A year when visionaries may have their dreams fulfilled or perhaps just furthered a little more.

This time last year I summarised quite accurately the forthcoming main issues likely to dominate the headlines This year the future is a little more difficult to foresee as .so much will depend on the outcome of the forthcoming General Election. So much is dependent on the election result as to determine which direction the UK is likely to go in the world. So many topics from the NHS to Immigration are embroiled in the consequences election result itself.

  • General Election

  • Immigration

  • European Recession

General Election

I normally find in the year leading up to a General Election, it is possibly to sense the feeling of the public mood which gives s good indication of which way the election is likely to go. This is the first time I have not been able to sense any such a feeling. It is almost like there is some form on no-man’s land on the subject. There are certainly exceptionally strong feelings over issues like Europe and Immigration, but I think there is also a general sense of great public unease with all the main parties and how they will deal with these issues, if at all,  except in their election rhetoric.

It is almost certain that increasingly over the next few months we will be faced with a barrage of fatuous and equally hollow promises from political parties mixed in with acrimonious debate. They have already started with promises like a future road improvement programme. One such promise that is likely to effect myself in the West Country where I live is the main arterial road, the A303 from London being duelled along its length. Again locals have heard this same promise so many times before only for it to be cancelled yet again for economic reasons as soon as a new government takes control. Most locals take such promises with a ‘pinch of salt’ and will only believe it when it happens. The likelihood  of the next government using the time weathered excuse of ‘the current economic situation’ for pruning back this programme once again, possibly to the point where it becomes non-existent remains very high.

The only thing that seems reasonably certain in the next election from what I can sense from public opinion, is the Lib/Dems will fare badly, so badly that are likely to gain few, if any seats at all in Parliament.

Even with the Lib/Dems facing political annihilation in the election, it is still unlikely to be a straight contest between the Conservatives and Labour. There are now two new kids on the block that have surged into prominence since the last election in the form of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)  and the Scottish Nationalists.These upcoming parties are likely to heavily drain seats from the Tories and Labour particularly in areas where they had previously enjoyed strong support. So much so, there is a strong possibility no one party will have sufficient seats to form a government. If this happens then the future governance of this country is likely to be another difficult to manage coalition government with policies based on what can be salvaged from the wreckage of grandiose promises and what the economic situation will allow.

With these four parties having  almost diametrically opposed views on a number of policies, the likelihood of a sustained period of horse trading  to form a government between the parties remains high and it is likely the electorate will be left feeling cheated once again on issues like a European Referendum. I would not be at all surprised, unthinkable as it may be, if we end up with either Lab/Scot Nats, Lab/Con or even a Con/UKIP coalition with the support of a few individuals from other parties. It is as if the more traditional mould of British politics is about to be broken for a long time to come. Personally I detest coalition governments no matter what parties they are formed from. They certainly do not lead to strong government and are at best a watered down appeasement of each parties policies.

Immigration

Once again this is an issue likely to figure at the forefront of the election. One thing people most resent is not foreign visitors per se, but a overwhelming flood of people coming from abroad to reside in the UK and in so doing, changing the UK’s own culture in the process. Questions like how things like Education, Health Services, Housing and so on are expected to cope with suddenly increased numbers are valid questions that do not appear to be satisfactorily answered. A sudden increase of people for whatever reason means a strain on the housing market be it social or private. This in turn has led to higher property prices through supply and demand shortages, which in turn has squeezed many people through economic pressures out of the property market all together. Any party that takes away the prospect of people one day ever owning their own home has made a lifelong enemy.The rented sector which began to seriously decline in the 1960/70’s is once again booming but this time with exceeding high and eye-watering rent levels.Although the politicians have claimed immigration is economically good for Great Britain, that is not how it is perceived by much of the UK electorate.

Free migration by EU citizens within member states is a cornerstone policy of the EU. EU politicians claim that any attempt to reform this policy would require a treaty change and would need to be agreed to by all 28 member states. They also indicate that any such move is likely to be fiercely resisted. Despite paying a lions share in contributions to the EU, as many of the UK’s powers have been devolved to the EU by previous governments, political promises to reform immigration do seem to be dead in the water. A point that will not please many of the electorate and could well be a deciding issue in the General Election.

European Recession

Recent months have seen a collapse in oil prices. This is mainly due the the US now being able to exploit its own shale oil resources and reducing its dependency on the world oil market. Recession in other large oil consuming countries in the Far East and South America have added to a world surplus of oil. Petro economies reliant from both the sale of oil and oil taxes have seen their revenues fall. This includes the UK but other forms of income from services like banking are helping to off-set this loss. Had Scotland vote for Independence, their economy would have faced great difficulties.

Other European economies have faced a much slower recovery than the UK and some economists have forecast this could lead to a triple-dip recession in the Euro Zone. It is not possible to turn a blind-eye to this possibility or the effects yet another possible threat from possibly a new Greek government seeking to renegotiate the terms of its bail-out commitments.

Even though the UK is likely to suffer less from a possible recession, the fall in demand for exported goods with a likely rising value of the pound against the Euro would mean a reduced income for a UK government making the likelihood imposing even more harsher spending cuts at home.

The EU heavily criticised in the UK for apparent liberal and ever increasing spending policies irrespective of its member states financial realities, is likely to put greater financial demands on its more wealthier member states if it finds itself in financial difficulties. Again this is something unlikely to please the UK electorate.

All of the above factors are making the fortune teller’s crystal ball a bit murky for the next six months.After that things should become a little clearer although I am not so certain UK citizens will necessarily like what they see. On a optimistic note however, the UK’s future will probably be better than many others.

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